Group 1: AI Infrastructure Growth - The latest report from CMB International predicts that AI infrastructure will continue to grow strongly at least until 2026, with major overseas cloud providers' capital expenditures expected to increase by over 60% in 2024 and 2025, followed by a growth of over 30% in 2026 [1] - The market is looking for the "next Cambricon" following the rapid market capitalization growth of Cambricon (688256.SH) this year, with the recent listing of Moore Threads (688795.SH) on the STAR Market leading to significant stock price increases [1][2] Group 2: Stock Performance Comparison - Cambricon's stock price has increased by over 100% this year, driven by explosive revenue growth, with total revenue reaching 4.607 billion yuan in Q3, compared to only 185 million yuan in the same period last year [2][10] - The stock price of Cambricon began to rise significantly in early August, prior to the release of its semi-annual report, indicating that profitability was not the direct driver of its stock price increase [4] - In contrast, Nvidia's stock price has shown a divergence from Cambricon's, with Nvidia's market capitalization reaching over $5 trillion while Cambricon's market cap is approximately 588 billion yuan [4][10] Group 3: Capital Expenditure Insights - The narrative in the U.S. capital markets suggests that tech giants' capital expenditures on AI infrastructure, particularly core computing hardware, have supported the rise in AI hardware stock prices [6] - Among the top 20 companies in the S&P 500, those with significant capital expenditure increases are primarily related to AI data center assets, including energy, storage, and semiconductors [7] - The overall capital expenditure of the CSI 300 companies was approximately 2.031 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.5% compared to last year, indicating that the data may not fully reflect the true state of AI capital expenditures in Chinese tech companies [9][10] Group 4: New Market Entrants - Newly listed companies Moore Threads and Muxi Co. reported revenues of 784.6 million yuan and 1.236 billion yuan respectively for the first three quarters, indicating they are in the early stages of commercialization but have entered a revenue-generating phase [14] - Both companies have shown a sales rate exceeding 100% in 2025, reflecting their acceleration into the commercialization phase [15] Group 5: R&D and Profitability - Moore Threads and Muxi Co. are currently operating at a loss, with net profit margins of -92.22% and -27.95% respectively, while Cambricon achieved a net profit margin of 34.81% this year [18] - The R&D expense ratios for Moore Threads and Muxi Co. are significantly higher than the average of comparable companies, indicating ongoing investment in research and development [16][17]
「中国英伟达」们的估值叙事:从寒武纪走势看摩尔线程、沐曦股份