12月资产配置月度报告：股债调整金价冲高，经济筑底静待企稳

Market Overview - In November, global risk assets primarily declined due to changing expectations around Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and concerns about potential AI asset bubbles and the sustainability of tech narratives [1] - The Wind All A index recorded a decline of 2.22% for the month, with small-cap stocks outperforming, as the Wind Micro-cap index rose by 4.97% while the STAR Market and ChiNext indices fell by 6.24% and 4.23% respectively [1] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Technology index fell by 5.23%, while the Hang Seng Index showed relative strength with a decline of only 0.18% [1] Bond Market - The bond market saw a brief recovery in sentiment at the beginning of November due to the central bank's announcement to restart government bond purchases, but yields quickly turned upward due to lower-than-expected bond buying and reduced expectations for monetary easing [2] - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose by nearly 5 basis points to 1.84% over the month [2] Commodity Market - The commodity market showed significant divergence in November, with precious metals rising; London gold spot prices increased by 5.41% to $4,218.55 per ounce, while domestic gold rose by 2.89% to ¥948.15 per gram [3] - Oil prices, however, experienced a downward trend, with Brent crude falling by 3.50% to $62.32 per barrel [3] Economic Performance - In October, macroeconomic growth slowed due to holiday effects and rising baselines, with production, investment, foreign trade, social financing, and credit growth all falling below market expectations [5] - Industrial production showed a year-on-year increase of 4.9% in October, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value, indicating a weakening production momentum [6] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment continued to drag on economic growth, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.7% in October [7] - Retail sales growth remained weak, with consumer spending under pressure, particularly in the automotive sector, while service consumption showed improvement due to extended holiday effects [7] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy maintained a moderately loose stance in November, focusing on supporting credit demand and ensuring adequate liquidity [9] - The central bank is expected to continue using flexible open market operations to maintain liquidity and prevent significant fluctuations in funding rates [9] Asset Allocation Outlook - The current economic cycle is characterized as an early recovery phase, with external demand expected to provide support, but internal demand indicators have not shown a clear turning point [25] - The asset performance ranking is currently: bonds, stocks > commodities, with potential for a shift towards stocks and commodities if fiscal and monetary policies exceed expectations [26]