经济学家预测风向突变：欧洲央行下一步或是加息！

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that over 60% of economists believe the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates next, a significant shift from one-third in October, as inflation stabilizes around 2% [2] - Economists predict that the next adjustment in ECB rates will be an increase, aligning with the views of influential hawkish executive Isabel Schnabel [2] - Despite the expectation of a rate hike, it is anticipated that deposit rates will remain at 2% until December 18 and throughout the next two years [2] Group 2 - Analysts are revising their forecasts due to the unexpected resilience of the Eurozone economy against global trade pressures and geopolitical turmoil, aided by substantial government spending [2] - Both Paul Hollingsworth and Jan von Gerich predict that the ECB will implement two rate hikes of 25 basis points each in September and December 2027 [3] - Respondents expect the ECB's upcoming quarterly forecast to present a more optimistic growth outlook, as hinted by ECB President Christine Lagarde [3] Group 3 - Concerns about inflation in 2027 persist, particularly regarding the delayed implementation of the EU's new carbon pricing system, although inflation is expected to rise by 1.9% that year [4] - Nearly two-thirds of analysts are more worried about exceeding the ECB's mid-term inflation target rather than falling short, indicating a balanced view on inflation risks [4] - Dennis Shen from Scope Economics suggests that the ECB should consider current interest rates appropriate due to relatively balanced inflation risks, with no expected rate cuts until 2026 [4] Group 4 - The chief economist of Sweden's bank, Nerijus Maciulis, anticipates another rate cut by the ECB in March next year, citing a fragile foundation for growth prospects [5] - Approximately 45% of respondents believe that economic growth is primarily constrained by structural factors beyond the ECB's control, such as manufacturing downturns and high energy costs [5] - Carsten Brzeski from ING argues that monetary policy cannot address structural growth issues, predicting that officials will remain patient and refrain from further rate cuts until at least 2027 [5]