GONGNIU(SH:603195) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-12 08:34Core Viewpoint - The company continues to face pressure in Q3 2025, with a focus on refining its core business while expanding into new markets and products. The buy rating is maintained, but the target price is reduced by 18% to 50.00 yuan, corresponding to a 20 times P/E for 2026 [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first nine months of 2025, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.2% and 8.7% year-on-year, reaching 12.2 billion yuan and 2.98 billion yuan, respectively. In Q3 2025, revenue and net profit fell by 4.4% and 10.3% year-on-year to 4.03 billion yuan and 920 million yuan [1]. - The gross profit margin declined by 1.0 percentage points to 42.1%. The sales expense ratio decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 7.0%, while the management expense ratio increased by 0.9 percentage points to 4.7%. The R&D expense ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 3.6%, and the financial income ratio fell by 0.1 percentage points to -0.6%. The net profit margin decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 24.4% [1]. - Inventory turnover days increased by 1 day to 52 days, while accounts receivable and payable turnover days rose by 1 day and 7 days to 7 days and 85 days, respectively. The net operating cycle improved by 5 days to -26 days [1]. Business Development and Market Expansion - The company is intensifying R&D and market development for new products such as circuit breakers and power tools, while focusing on smart strategies for wall openings. The personal charging pile business is shifting from offline promotion to a multi-channel approach. A dedicated team is being formed to target heavy truck charging pile clients [2]. - In the overseas market, the company has established a comprehensive process for large clients in the home decoration business, expecting to achieve over 100 million yuan in revenue from its own brand this year. The company plans to achieve global coverage of major categories within three years, focusing on product development based on local customer needs, particularly in high-demand categories like track sockets and power tools [2]. - The management model for overseas business is being optimized, transitioning from a domestic-focused approach to a more localized strategy with regional and national leaders responsible for recruitment, operations, and services, enhancing operational efficiency [2]. - For the energy storage business, the company is aligning its product layout with the trend of blurring boundaries between residential and commercial energy storage, with more SKUs expected to launch in the first half of 2026 [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts revenues for 2025-2027 to be 16.58 billion yuan, 17.57 billion yuan, and 18.57 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -1.5%, +6.0%, and +5.7%, respectively. Net profits attributable to shareholders are expected to be 4.22 billion yuan, 4.48 billion yuan, and 4.76 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -1.2%, +6.2%, and +6.1% [3][4]. - The company maintains a target price of 50.00 yuan, down 18% from the previous target, which still indicates a 16% upside potential from the current stock price [3][4].