国金证券：氢能顶层关注度提升 建议把握窗口期布局

Core Insights - The report from Guojin Securities highlights the increasing attention and urgency of hydrogen energy policies at the national level, marking a significant shift from the 14th Five-Year Plan to the 15th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on decarbonization in non-electric sectors and the essential role of hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol as energy carriers [1] Green Methanol - Global demand for green methanol is expected to surge, driven by the EU carbon tax and IMO policies promoting green shipping, with 334 methanol-powered vessels projected to create over 7 million tons of methanol demand [1] - Long-term projections indicate that when global green methanol penetration reaches 10%, demand could exceed 40 million tons, presenting significant investment opportunities for early production and cost-effective green methanol producers [1] Hydrogen Production Equipment - The economic viability of green hydrogen production is becoming clearer, with projects showing an internal rate of return (IRR) exceeding 6.5%, making previously stalled green hydrogen projects feasible [2] - Direct connection to renewable electricity and cost reductions in hydrogen production are expected to enhance demand across various sectors, including transportation and industrial applications [2] Fuel Cell Vehicles - The development path for fuel cell vehicles is now clearer, with infrastructure improvements and cost reductions leading to increased adoption, particularly in heavy-duty applications [3] - The removal of highway fees for fuel cell vehicles is anticipated to enhance their economic viability, contributing to a recovery in the sector's overall performance [3] Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) - The demand for SOFCs is expected to grow due to the increasing power needs of AI data centers, with SOFCs offering advantages such as short installation times and high efficiency [4] - The projected cost of SOFC power generation could decrease to $0.09 per kWh due to tax incentives, making it competitive with gas turbines [5] Investment Recommendations - The hydrogen industry is still in its commercialization phase, driven by policy support, with recommendations to focus on companies that can leverage domestic and international demand [6] - Key companies to consider include Jin Feng Technology, Huadian Technology, Guofu Hydrogen Energy, and Sanhuan Group, particularly those with early production capabilities and strong sales channels in green methanol [6]