百利好晚盘分析：押注明年降息 黄金强势上涨

Group 1: Gold - The last interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has concluded, with Chairman Powell not providing hints for future cuts, perceived as a "hawkish cut," but the overall tone is less aggressive than expected. The dot plot indicates only one rate cut (25 basis points) is anticipated next year, consistent with September's expectations [1] - Wall Street investment banks predict two rate cuts next year totaling 50 basis points, with Citigroup forecasting cuts in January and March, while Morgan Stanley suggests January and April. Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Barclays expect cuts in March and June [1] - Analyst Owen from Baillie Gifford believes that with the conclusion of the last rate cut, investors are betting on future cuts by the Fed, which is favorable for gold prices [1] - Technically, gold broke through the previous two-week trading range (4180-4260 USD) and is expected to target 4320 USD. Short-term outlook indicates a continuation of upward momentum after recent fluctuations [1] Group 2: Oil - Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are at a standstill, with conflicting demands and "red lines." The main disagreement centers on Russia's demand for the Donbas region and security guarantees for Ukraine, with Putin stating he "will not compromise" [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that despite declines in oil production from Russia and Venezuela, global supply still exceeds demand. It forecasts a modest increase in global oil demand of 830,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 860,000 barrels per day in 2026, significantly lower than previous years [2] - Technically, oil faced resistance at 60.47 USD last week and has since retreated, with a recent bounce back to around 57 USD. The downward trend remains intact, with resistance at 58.10 USD and support at 57 USD, with a potential drop to 56.20 USD if support is broken [2] Group 3: US Dollar Index - The FOMC statement indicates that reserve balances have fallen to adequate levels, and the Fed plans to purchase 40 billion USD in short-term US Treasury bonds over the next month to maintain sufficient reserves, marking a shift from balance sheet reduction to expansion [3] - Notable short-seller Michael Burry expressed concerns about the Fed's actions, suggesting that without over 3 trillion USD in reserves, the US banking system would be unable to function, indicating fragility. He also noted that each crisis leads the Fed to permanently expand its balance sheet, which poses risks [3] - Technically, the dollar faced resistance at 100.40, indicating a broad range of fluctuations over the past six months. A break below 99 increases the likelihood of further declines, with potential support at 96.60 [3] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has maintained a trading range of 50200 to 51000 over the past week, with unclear short-term direction. A breakout above 51100 could lead to a target of 51700 [4] Group 5: Copper - Copper prices recently broke through previous highs, showing a strong upward trend in the hourly chart and a broad upward movement in the daily chart, with further increases likely towards 5.38 USD. Short-term focus is on a key level at 5.35 USD, with potential upward movement towards 5.49 USD [5]