巨头卷向“三重靶点”减重药，国内价格战即将打响

Core Insights - Eli Lilly's new GLP-1 weight loss drug retatrutide has shown a nearly 29% weight reduction in patients during late-stage clinical trials, along with additional benefits in alleviating knee pain [1][2] - The competitive landscape for next-generation weight loss drugs is intensifying, with major pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer also making significant moves in the market [1][3] Group 1: Eli Lilly's Developments - Eli Lilly's retatrutide targets three mechanisms: GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon, which may enhance weight loss efficacy by suppressing appetite, controlling blood sugar, and increasing calorie expenditure [2] - The company has submitted an oral weight loss drug for FDA approval, expected to launch next year, intensifying competition with Novo Nordisk [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The inclusion of Eli Lilly's tirzepatide in the medical insurance system starting January 1, 2026, is anticipated to reshape the market dynamics for GLP-1 drugs [5][6] - Novo Nordisk's core patent for semaglutide in China is set to expire in March 2026, which could lead to increased competition and price reductions in the market [5][6] Group 3: Pfizer's Strategic Moves - Pfizer has entered a global exclusive collaboration with Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical to develop a GLP-1 drug currently in Phase I clinical trials, with a deal worth over $2 billion [3][4] - The company aims to enhance its pipeline in obesity treatment, which is a strategic focus for future growth [4] Group 4: Industry Trends - The market is expected to see a significant increase in the supply of GLP-1 drugs, surpassing previous trends seen with PD-1 targeted therapies, leading to a potential price war by 2026 [7] - As of August this year, there are 52 GLP-1 receptor agonist candidates in clinical development for diabetes treatment in China, with 53 candidates for obesity treatment also in development [7]