IC Markets官网：日银鹰派预期对冲风险偏好，日元多头乘势而上？

Core Viewpoint - The hawkish outlook of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is counterbalancing market risk appetite, with yen bulls currently in a stronger position despite some weakness in the yen due to optimistic market sentiment and concerns over Japan's fiscal situation [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Currency Dynamics - The yen is under pressure but supported by hawkish expectations from the BoJ, limiting the bearish momentum [1]. - Traders are pricing in the possibility of the BoJ raising interest rates as early as next week, contrasting with expectations of further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which has kept the dollar under pressure [1][2]. - Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's large-scale spending plan is exacerbating concerns over Japan's public finances, contributing to a cautious approach among traders regarding aggressive short positions on the yen [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Policy Expectations - The Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) indicates that Japan's inflation remains above historical averages, supporting the BoJ's hawkish stance and the likelihood of policy normalization [2]. - The upcoming BoJ policy meeting on December 18 is highly anticipated, with traders likely to avoid aggressive shorting of the yen ahead of this event [2]. - The Fed's recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points and its future outlook has created a weak dollar environment, further impacting USD/JPY dynamics [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The immediate resistance for USD/JPY is just above the 156.00 level, with potential for a new round of short covering if this level is breached [6]. - A drop below the psychological level of 155.00 could accelerate declines in USD/JPY, with key support levels at 154.35 and 154.00 [6].