期权交易员押注欧元将大涨！欧美央行政策分歧成关键催化剂

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) meeting is expected to highlight policy divergence with the Federal Reserve, providing new momentum for the euro's rebound [1][2] - The most active euro to dollar options strike price this month is 1.18, with most contracts set to expire around the ECB's rate decision window on December 18-19 [1] - The sentiment in the options market regarding the ECB's decision on December 18 is the most bullish in three months, with over 60% of respondents in a Bloomberg survey believing the ECB is more likely to raise borrowing costs rather than lower them [2] Group 2 - Hedge funds have been significant drivers of the euro's bullish trend this week, heavily buying standard and exotic options that profit from a stronger euro [2] - The euro's outlook will primarily be influenced by the interest rate differential between the Eurozone and the U.S., with expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement a series of rate cuts next year, potentially weakening the dollar and boosting the euro [2] - The cost of buying volatility ahead of the ECB decision has reached a three-month high, linked to hawkish comments from ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel [2]