中央经济工作会议再次定调深化“反内卷” 三大方向或迎机遇

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of addressing "involution" competition and identified key progress in this area, highlighting potential investment opportunities in various sectors [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook and Industry Performance - The "anti-involution" theme has gained traction since late June, with all related industries showing positive returns since July, although performance varies across sectors [1] - The best-performing sectors include lithium batteries and photovoltaics, driven by both anti-involution benefits and improved demand, particularly in domestic and international energy storage [1] - Sectors like steel have shown initial strong performance but have weakened recently due to declining real estate investment and demand [1] - The express delivery and pig farming sectors have underperformed, with weak growth since July and negative fluctuations in the past month [1] Group 2: Industrial Price Trends - Since July, industrial prices have not uniformly increased; notable performers include photovoltaics, lithium carbonate, and thermal coal, while prices for pork and cement have fallen below July levels due to weak demand [2] - The photovoltaic sector has stabilized at high prices, while lithium carbonate has seen accelerated price increases since late October [2] - The coal sector has shown improvement, while other industries require ongoing observation for changes [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Future investment opportunities should be analyzed from three perspectives: current policy support, market structure, and demand side dynamics [2][3] - The photovoltaic and coal industries currently receive the most significant policy support, with strong overall promotion intentions [3] - Industries with lower private capacity and higher concentration are more likely to manage supply-side capacity control effectively [3] - The lithium battery sector may benefit from rising domestic and international energy storage demand, while the chemical industry, as a supplier of lithium battery materials, is also worth monitoring [3] Group 4: Long-term Market Trends - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to remain a long-term market theme, with optimistic prospects for sectors like lithium batteries, coal, and photovoltaics, which benefit from both policy and demand [3] - Some industries have already experienced significant stock price increases, which may lead to greater volatility as year-end approaches [3]