11月金融数据出炉：贷款增速趋势性放缓，政府部门加杠杆支撑社融增长

Group 1: Monetary and Financing Environment - The central bank reported that M2 and social financing growth rates remain high, creating a favorable monetary environment for economic recovery [1] - As of the end of November, M2 balance reached 336.99 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.0%, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - The total social financing stock was 440.07 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous year [1] Group 2: Government Debt and Financing - Government bond financing has significantly contributed to social financing growth, with net financing of 13.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.61 trillion yuan year-on-year [2] - The total new government debt for the year is expected to reach 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to last year [2] - Government bonds accounted for 40% of the increase in social financing, indicating a strong reliance on government debt to support credit expansion [3] Group 3: Loan Growth Trends - The growth rate of loans has shown a downward trend, with RMB loans increasing by 15.36 trillion yuan in the first eleven months [4] - Loans to the real economy increased by 14.93 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 1.28 trillion yuan year-on-year [5] - The decline in loan growth is attributed to various factors, including the substitution effect of government bonds and the impact of local government debt [5][6] Group 4: Structural Changes in Financing - The shift from investment-driven to consumption-driven economic growth has led to a decrease in traditional credit demand, particularly from real estate and local financing platforms [6] - New economic growth areas, such as technology innovation, are more aligned with equity financing rather than relying heavily on credit [6] - The current loan growth rate, adjusted for local government debt effects, remains around 7.5%, still above nominal economic growth [6] Group 5: Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies - The coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is crucial for supporting economic growth and structural adjustments [8] - The central bank has maintained a stable funding environment, supporting the smooth issuance of government bonds [8] - The upcoming economic policies for 2026 are expected to continue a moderately loose monetary stance alongside proactive fiscal measures [9]