动力煤价格“过山车”：4个月涨三成后连跌15天，专家称难破700元／吨

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility of thermal coal prices in China, which saw a significant increase in the second half of the year after a decline in the first half, with prices reaching a peak of 834 yuan/ton before falling again [2][3] - As of December 10, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was reported at 778 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 52 yuan/ton from late November, indicating a downward trend in prices [2][3] - Analysts attribute the price decline to oversupply and low demand, with domestic coal production recovering and warmer weather delaying peak heating demand, leading to reduced coal consumption in thermal power generation [3][4] Group 2 - The market is characterized by a "旺季不旺" (旺季不旺) phenomenon, where prices are falling despite the typical peak season for coal demand [2][4] - Trade dynamics show that power plants are primarily maintaining essential purchases, with a significant drop in procurement volumes, while traders are hesitant to sell at lower prices, creating a stalemate in the market [4][5] - Coal inventories at major ports have been increasing, with a total of 66.72 million tons reported, indicating a surplus in supply and contributing to the downward pressure on prices [5][6] Group 3 - Experts believe that the likelihood of thermal coal prices dropping below 700 yuan/ton is very low, as demand for heating is expected to rise with incoming cold weather [6][7] - The supply side remains stable, with increased coal production from Xinjiang and limited supply gaps, while overall coal demand is still declining year-on-year [7][8] - The current price adjustment is expected to stabilize between 750 and 770 yuan/ton, with limited potential for significant rebounds above 800 yuan/ton in the near future [7][8][9]