华西证券刘郁：若2026年消费政策加力 有望推动阶段性行情

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of quality in economic growth for 2026, focusing on both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical measures [1] - The shift in language from "insufficient domestic demand" to "strong supply and weak demand" indicates a push for expanding domestic demand and addressing low-efficiency competition leading to price stagnation [1] - Policies will continue to leverage existing measures while introducing new ones, with fiscal policy focusing on structural optimization and monetary policy supporting domestic demand expansion [1] Group 2 - The primary task for 2026 is to prioritize domestic demand, which includes boosting consumption and unlocking the potential of service consumption [2] - Given the weak market expectations for consumer trends this year, with the consumption index rising by 13.40% compared to the 23.85% increase in the overall A-share market, stronger consumption policies in 2026 could lead to a recovery in the consumption sector [2] - The conference highlighted the need to cultivate new growth drivers, with technology sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and robotics being key areas of focus, alongside the "anti-involution" measures affecting state-owned enterprises [2]