Circle跌出价值了吗？

Core Viewpoint - Circle, a prominent player in the stablecoin market, has experienced significant volatility since its IPO, raising questions about its long-term value proposition and business model [1]. Group 1: Business Model and Revenue Generation - Circle's primary product, the stablecoin USDC, is pegged to the US dollar at a 1:1 ratio, contrasting with traditional cryptocurrencies by being centralized and non-volatile [2]. - The company's revenue model is straightforward: Revenue = USDC scale * investment yield * retention ratio (40%), with 96% of revenue derived from interest income on USDC reserves invested in US Treasury bonds [2][5]. - USDC's circulation has grown significantly, with $73.7 billion in circulation at the end of Q3 2025, representing a 108% year-over-year increase [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The stablecoin market is still relatively small, comprising about 1.5% of the US M2 money supply, and its primary use case remains as a medium for cryptocurrency transactions rather than widespread cross-border payments [4]. - USDC faces competition from other stablecoins, particularly USDT, which has a larger market share and less regulatory oversight, potentially impacting USDC's growth trajectory [12][13]. - The growth of USDC has been closely tied to its partnership with Coinbase, which accounts for a significant portion of its revenue sharing [15]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Sensitivity - Circle reported total revenue of $740 million in Q3 2025, a 66% increase year-over-year, with net income from continuing operations reaching $214 million, a 202% increase [3][16]. - The company's financial performance is highly sensitive to interest rate changes; a decrease in US Treasury yields could significantly impact revenue and profitability [17]. - The current high interest rate environment (around 4%) has bolstered Circle's earnings, but a shift to lower rates could drastically reduce revenue [15][17]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Challenges - The future growth of USDC is contingent on its ability to penetrate cross-border payment markets and compete effectively against other stablecoins [19][23]. - There is skepticism regarding the sustainability of USDC's growth, with concerns about the long-term viability of its business model and the potential for declining market share [21][23]. - The potential for regulatory support for stablecoin applications could provide a boost to valuations, but the competitive landscape remains challenging [22][23].