Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) Bull, Base, & Bear Price Prediction and Forecast (Dec 12)

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has shown resilience in the face of economic uncertainties and trade tensions, recently achieving all-time highs and becoming the first company with a $5 trillion market cap, despite earlier bearish sentiments and challenges in the Chinese market [1][2]. Group 1: Nvidia's Market Position and Performance - Nvidia controls approximately 80% of the AI accelerator market, primarily through its H100/H200 GPUs and CUDA software ecosystem, positioning itself well for growth in the projected $400 billion AI chip market by 2030 [4]. - Data center revenue has increased significantly from $4.3 billion in Q1 2023 to over $35.6 billion in Q4 2024, indicating strong demand and the need for continuous innovation in GPU architecture [5]. - Nvidia has maintained industry-leading gross margins at 73% in Q4 FY2025, despite concerns about competition potentially eroding these margins [6]. Group 2: Stock Price Predictions and Scenarios - In a bull case scenario, Nvidia's stock price could reach $491 per share by 2030, representing a 171.4% increase, driven by sustained AI growth and data center revenue expansion [7]. - The base case for Nvidia's stock price is estimated at $241 per share, with a market cap of $8.9 trillion, contingent on continued success in the AI narrative [10][15]. - The bear case suggests a potential drop to $38 per share if the AI narrative fails, reflecting a significant risk to Nvidia's valuation and business model [11][12].