政府部门加杠杆支撑社融增长 贷款增速放缓反映新旧动能转换

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that the rapid issuance of government bonds is increasingly substituting for loans, reflecting a shift in financing dynamics within the economy [1][2]. Group 1: Social Financing and Loan Data - As of the end of November 2025, the total social financing scale was 440.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%. The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.42 trillion yuan, growing by 6.3% year-on-year [1]. - The balance of corporate bonds was 34.08 trillion yuan, up 5.6% year-on-year, while government bonds reached 94.24 trillion yuan, marking an 18.8% increase [1]. - The proportion of RMB loans to the real economy accounted for 60.8% of the total social financing scale, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Government Bond Issuance and Fiscal Policy - The issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special government bonds has been completed, with 2 trillion yuan allocated for refinancing existing hidden debts and 4.4 trillion yuan for new project construction [2]. - Government bond financing now constitutes 40% of the incremental social financing scale, indicating a significant contribution to overall financing growth [2]. Group 3: Monetary Supply and Credit Quality - The M2 money supply stood at 336.99 trillion yuan, growing by 8% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 112.89 trillion yuan, up 4.9% [4]. - The balance of loans in both domestic and foreign currencies was 274.84 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [5]. Group 4: Economic Transition and Loan Demand - The decline in loan growth reflects a transition in economic drivers from investment to consumption, with traditional sectors like real estate seeing reduced credit demand [6]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.1%, down about 30 basis points year-on-year, indicating a low-cost borrowing environment [6]. Group 5: Monetary Policy Tools and Framework - The central bank plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to ensure adequate liquidity and support economic stability [8][9]. - The framework for monetary policy will be optimized to enhance the effectiveness of liquidity management and ensure a balanced growth of financial totals [11][12].