Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-12-12 13:25Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced fluctuations, initially rising due to expectations of a "hawkish rate cut" from the Federal Reserve, but later declined as markets deemed Powell's stance insufficiently hawkish [1] - Spot gold prices rose for four consecutive trading days, reaching a one-month high of over $4,330 per ounce, driven by a weaker dollar and increased risk aversion [1] - Silver prices doubled since January, with the World Silver Association predicting a supply deficit of approximately 117 million ounces in 2025, leading analysts to forecast silver prices could exceed $100 next year [1] - Non-USD currencies strengthened against the dollar, with expectations that several central banks are nearing the end of their easing cycles and may soon raise rates [1] - International oil prices showed a weak trend, influenced by India's oil purchases from Russia, Iraq's production recovery, and concerns over US actions against Venezuelan oil shipments [1] US Stock Market - The US stock market showed overall strength but with significant internal structural divergence, particularly influenced by the performance of bank stocks and cyclical sectors [2] Investment Bank Insights - Predictions from various investment banks suggest that the recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve may be the last under Powell's leadership, with future easing dependent on labor market conditions [5] - Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank forecast a decline in the dollar index by approximately 3% by the end of 2026 due to ongoing rate cuts and policy divergence among central banks [5] Major Events - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% and initiated a short-term Treasury bond purchase plan, with a significant focus on maintaining adequate reserve supplies [6] - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point increase, marking the highest borrowing cost since 1995 [9] - Other central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia, are also anticipated to raise rates in the coming years, contrasting with the Fed's potential continued easing [11] Geopolitical Developments - The US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker, marking a significant escalation in its sanctions against Venezuela, which the Venezuelan government condemned as "piracy" [14][15] - Ongoing negotiations regarding a peace plan for the Russia-Ukraine conflict have revealed significant disagreements, particularly concerning territorial and security arrangements [12][13] Corporate Developments - SpaceX plans to go public in 2026, with a target valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion, potentially raising around $40 billion [17][18] - Meta Platforms is shifting its strategy from open-source to closed-source AI models, with significant investments planned for AI development [21] - A bidding war has erupted between Netflix and Paramount over Warner Bros. Discovery, with Paramount making a cash offer significantly higher than Netflix's proposal [22][23] - OpenAI launched its latest AI model, GPT-5.2, and plans to end its "red code" alert in January, indicating a surge in enterprise AI applications [24]