Buy or Sell Carvana Stock?

Core Insights - Carvana's stock has experienced a remarkable recovery, rising from below $5 in late 2022 to nearly $472 in 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 17% increase and CarMax's 50% decline [2][3] Financial Performance - Carvana's revenue has grown at an average rate of 11.6% over the past three years, with a notable 46% increase from $13 billion to $18 billion in the last twelve months, and a 54.5% year-over-year growth to $5.6 billion in the latest quarter [7] - The company generated $1.7 billion in operating income over the past year, achieving an operating margin of 9.4%, which, while improved from previous losses, remains below the S&P 500's average of nearly 19% [8] - Operating cash flow was approximately $666 million, resulting in a cash flow margin of 3.6%, while net income of $629 million reflects a 3.4% net margin, indicating that Carvana is functional but not yet a margin leader [9] Valuation Metrics - Carvana's market capitalization exceeds $100 billion, with a price-to-sales ratio of around 2.9x, slightly below the S&P 500's 3.2x, but its price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 92 times, over three times the S&P 500's 23 [4][6] - The stock's valuation implies expectations of extremely strong and sustained profitability, with significant risks associated with any shortfall in performance [6] Financial Stability - Carvana has a debt total of $5.6 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of roughly 5.5%, which is better than the S&P average, and a cash-to-assets ratio near 27%, significantly higher than the broader market's single-digit level [10] Market Behavior - The stock has shown high volatility, with a 99% decline during the inflation shock of 2022, compared to a 25% decline for the S&P 500, and a recovery period of 947 days, which is approximately double that of the index [11][12] - Carvana's stock tends to react sharply to earnings, projections, and operational updates, indicating a high-beta characteristic [13] Investment Considerations - Carvana's turnaround is genuine, and its inclusion in the S&P 500 adds credibility, but the current stock price reflects much of the anticipated growth, suggesting that investors are paying a premium for future performance [14]