避险情绪引爆，“贵金属牛”卷土重来？白银涨疯了！

Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Gold prices surged to a seven-week high, with spot gold exceeding $4,330 per ounce, marking a 1.17% increase, while silver reached a historic high of $64.56 per ounce, up 1.58% [1] - Year-to-date, gold has risen over 65%, achieving more than 50 historical highs, while silver has skyrocketed by 120%, making it the top performer among global assets [1] Group 2: Dollar Index and Economic Context - The dollar index is hovering near a two-month low and is expected to decline for the third consecutive week, having dropped by nearly 10% this year [5] - Global economic uncertainty is driving traditional safe-haven assets to shine again [8] Group 3: Factors Driving Precious Metals - Key drivers for the bullish trend in precious metals include expectations of interest rate cuts, increased demand for safe-haven assets, a weakening dollar, and central bank gold purchases [9] - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Venezuela, have heightened risks, contributing to rising gold prices [9] Group 4: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has initiated its third interest rate cut of the year, reducing rates by 25 basis points, with market expectations leaning towards further monetary easing [10] - Despite the Fed's dot plot indicating only one rate cut in 2026, traders are betting on two cuts [10] Group 5: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks globally are selling dollars and increasing gold reserves, with a net increase of 53 tons in official gold reserves in October, a 36% month-on-month rise, marking the largest monthly net purchase of the year [12] - As of November, China's gold reserves have increased for the thirteenth consecutive month, rising by 30,000 ounces to a total of 7.412 million ounces [12] Group 6: ETF Holdings and Market Predictions - Global gold ETF holdings reached 3,932 tons by the end of November, marking six consecutive months of growth [14] - The silver market is projected to face a structural supply gap of approximately 95 million ounces by 2025, indicating a continued supply-demand imbalance [15] - Analysts predict that the macroeconomic backdrop, characterized by strong central bank demand and geopolitical tensions, will support gold prices through 2026 [15]