“通胀不再是最大敌人”，费城联储主席：就业下行风险更值得担忧

Core Viewpoint - The Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson expresses greater concern over the labor market's potential deterioration than inflation risks, anticipating a cooling of inflation next year [1][3]. Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - Paulson describes the labor market as "bent but not broken," indicating a significant increase in downside risks, with broader hiring activities remaining weak [2]. - Recent rate cuts totaling 75 basis points have provided some insurance against further deterioration in the labor market [2]. - The current federal funds rate of 3.5% to 3.75% is still considered restrictive, which, along with previous tightening effects, should help bring inflation back to the 2% target [1][3]. Group 2: Inflation Outlook - Paulson is relatively optimistic about inflation, suggesting a significant likelihood of a decline next year, primarily due to the expected waning impact of tariffs on goods prices [3]. - She emphasizes that the current interest rate levels and the cumulative effects of previous tightening policies should assist in achieving the inflation target [3]. Group 3: Decision-Making and Data Dependency - Paulson will gain voting rights on the FOMC in 2026 and anticipates more information by the end of January, which will clarify inflation and employment outlooks [4]. - The recent FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5% to 3.75%, reflecting a balance between employment market risks and elevated inflation levels [4]. - The meeting saw three dissenting votes, highlighting deep divisions within the committee regarding policy direction [4]. Group 4: Economic Factors and Credibility - Paulson stresses the importance of the Fed's credibility when assessing the economic impacts of factors like tariffs and artificial intelligence [5]. - She notes that if the economy experiences high growth driven by AI, the policy response would differ from scenarios where high inflation risks coexist [5].