【通威股份】Mysteel周报:上游挺价信号显现 下游淡季压制反弹空间

Group 1: Polysilicon Market Overview - Polysilicon spot prices remain stable due to a significant reduction in output since November and the establishment of platform companies, which boosts industry confidence [1][8] - Demand remains weak, with downstream sectors like silicon wafers and battery cells experiencing reduced operating rates and slow inventory digestion, leading to a lack of purchasing willingness [1][8] - Mysteel predicts a potential transition for the polysilicon industry into a "short-term bottoming, long-term improvement" phase if platform companies enforce strict compliance [1][8] Group 2: Silicon Wafer Market - The silicon wafer market shows stable pricing with a slight upward adjustment trend, particularly for the 210RN low-price quote, which has increased to 1.2 CNY/piece [2][8] - Despite some manufacturers raising prices, the overall market remains weak with high inventory levels and limited new orders as downstream battery manufacturers continue to cut production [2][8] Group 3: Battery Cell Market - The battery cell market has seen price increases, with average transaction prices for 183N and 210N rising by approximately 0.285 CNY/W, while 210RN increased by around 0.28 CNY/W [3][9] - The market primarily focuses on executing previous orders, with slow progress in negotiations for new orders [3][9] Group 4: Module Market - The module market continues to reflect the characteristics of the year-end off-season, with demand weakening and upstream battery cell prices declining, which compresses profit margins for module manufacturers [4][10] - Many module manufacturers are adjusting December production plans flexibly, with some even scheduling production line breaks to manage inventory risks [4][10] Group 5: Price Trends - The average prices for polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules have shown minimal fluctuations, with polysilicon prices remaining at 50.0 CNY/kg and silicon wafer prices holding steady in the range of 1.15-1.23 CNY/piece [6][12] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with high inventory levels across various segments impacting price stability [6][12] Group 6: Auxiliary Material Prices - The price index for auxiliary materials shows mixed trends, with silver paste prices increasing by 6.8% and 5.65% for different types, while EVA film prices have decreased by 6.34% [7][14] - The price of aluminum for frames has slightly decreased, reflecting the overall cost pressures faced by the industry [7][14]