Enlight Media(SZ:300251) Ge Long Hui·2025-12-12 14:25Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the stock price of Bona Film Group is driven by the anticipation of upcoming Hollywood blockbusters, particularly "Avatar 3," despite the company facing significant financial losses over the past four years [1][3][5]. Group 1: Company Performance - Bona Film Group's stock has increased by 230% since April, despite reporting a net loss of 11.10 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, marking a 213.11% decline year-on-year [3][5]. - The company has accumulated a total loss of 26.02 billion yuan over the past four years, making it the only major film company still in the red this year [5][10]. - In contrast, other major film companies have shown signs of recovery, with Light Media reporting a net profit of 2.336 billion yuan, a 406.78% increase year-on-year [3][5]. Group 2: Market Context - The domestic film market has been recovering, with total box office revenue expected to approach 500 billion yuan this year, compared to 425 billion yuan last year [12][14]. - However, excluding the success of "Nezha 2," the overall market remains weak, with many films underperforming [15][16]. - The film industry has faced challenges, with significant fluctuations in box office performance across different periods, leading to a difficult environment for film companies [17][18]. Group 3: Future Prospects - Bona's recent stock performance is linked to its partnership with TSG Entertainment, which grants it a share of the global box office for films like "Avatar 3" [6][10]. - The company has invested approximately 40 million USD for a 5% stake in "Avatar 3," which could yield significant returns if the film performs well [10]. - Despite the potential revenue from "Avatar 3," Bona's ongoing losses and reliance on high-budget films pose risks to its financial stability [10][32]. Group 4: Strategic Challenges - Bona Film Group's historical reliance on high-budget productions has led to vulnerabilities, as seen with the underperformance of "Jiaolong Action," which resulted in substantial losses [27][32]. - The company is exploring new avenues, including the establishment of an AI subsidiary to reduce production costs and enhance efficiency [28][29]. - Moving forward, Bona may need to balance its portfolio by incorporating lower-cost projects and innovative content to mitigate risks associated with blockbuster investments [32].