Broadcom stock plunges nearly 9%: what AVGO's sell-off signals for tech investors

Core Insights - Broadcom's stock fell nearly 9% after the company warned that rising AI revenue would lead to lower profit margins, disappointing investors who anticipated a successful transition to custom chips for hyperscalers [1][2] - Despite beating Wall Street estimates with Q4 revenue of $18.02 billion and guiding for Q1 revenue of $19.1 billion, the margin warning overshadowed the positive earnings report [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q4, Broadcom reported adjusted EPS of $1.95 on revenue of $18.02 billion, exceeding estimates of $1.87 and $17.45 billion [2] - AI semiconductor revenue reached $8.3 billion in Q4, significantly surpassing prior guidance of $6.2 billion [2] - For fiscal 2025, Broadcom achieved record revenue of $64 billion, a 24% increase, with AI revenue soaring 65% to $20 billion [3] Margin Concerns - CFO Kirsten Spears projected a decline in Q1 gross margins by approximately 100 basis points due to a higher mix of AI revenue, raising concerns among analysts [4] - The shift towards lower-margin system sales, where component costs are passed through to customers, is expected to grow, impacting overall gross margins [4][5] - Custom AI chips and systems inherently carry lower gross margins compared to traditional software products, leading to a compression in gross margin percentage despite absolute dollar profit growth [5] Customer Concentration Risk - The $73 billion backlog is heavily reliant on just five customers, including Google, Meta, and Anthropic, which poses a concentration risk [6] - Any slowdown in orders or a shift to in-house chips by major customers could significantly impact Broadcom's growth trajectory [6] Market Position and Outlook - Despite the sell-off, Broadcom's operating margins remain strong at 66.2% in Q4, and the company is well-positioned as a beneficiary of hyperscalers' demand for custom silicon [7] - The substantial backlog provides unusual revenue visibility, but the margin warning indicates potential challenges ahead [7]