Lilly(US:LLY) ZACKS·2025-12-12 17:20Core Insights - Eli Lilly's shares increased nearly 2% following the announcement of positive results from the late-stage study of its weight-loss drug, retatrutide, which met all primary and key secondary endpoints [1][9] Study Results - The TRIUMPH-4 study evaluated retatrutide at doses of 9 mg and 12 mg over 68 weeks against a placebo in adults with obesity or overweight and knee osteoarthritis, without diabetes [2] - Under the efficacy estimand, patients on the 12 mg dose lost an average of 28.7% of body weight, while the 9 mg dose resulted in a 26.4% loss; placebo patients lost only 2.1% [3] - For knee pain improvement, retatrutide achieved a reduction of 74-76% across both doses compared to 40.3% in the placebo group [3] - The treatment-regimen estimand showed a 23.7% weight loss for the 12 mg dose and 20% for the 9 mg dose, with placebo achieving a 4.6% reduction; knee pain reduction was 62-67% for retatrutide versus 35.1% for placebo [4] Adverse Effects - Patients treated with retatrutide reported higher rates of adverse effects compared to the placebo group, with common symptoms including nausea, constipation, and vomiting, leading to increased dropout rates [5] - Discontinuation rates due to adverse events were 12.2% for the 9 mg dose and 18.2% for the 12 mg dose, compared to 4.0% in the placebo group [5] Market Context - The obesity market in the U.S. is projected to reach $100 billion by 2030, with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently leading the market with their injectable products [11] - Eli Lilly is also developing oral weight-loss medications, with a key late-stage asset being orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 expected to submit for regulatory approval by the end of 2025 [13] - Competition is intensifying, with other companies like Viking Therapeutics and Pfizer making significant advancements in the obesity space [14][15]