美联储降息25基点，鲍威尔的三重困局，中国正开启自己的平衡术

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut since September [1] - The internal voting at the Federal Reserve showed rare dissent with three opposing votes, indicating intense debate over future policy directions [3] - Economic data presents mixed signals, with a surprising decrease in private sector employment and rising unemployment, while inflation remains above the Fed's long-term target [3] Group 2 - The Fed's cautious approach is influenced by persistent inflation, fiscal deficits, and pressure in the bond market, with federal debt exceeding $37 trillion and annual interest payments surpassing $1 trillion [5] - Global market reactions were mixed, with the Dow Jones rising nearly 500 points on the day of the rate cut, while the dollar index surged to a two-year high, reflecting skepticism about the sustainability of the easing cycle [5] - The shift in U.S. monetary policy provides a new external balance window for China, with the China-U.S. interest rate differential narrowing, but China maintains a policy of "self-determination" rather than blindly following the Fed [7] Group 3 - The differences in monetary policy between the U.S. and China reflect their respective economic stages, with the U.S. balancing between "preventing recession" and "fighting inflation," while China focuses on "stabilizing growth" and "preventing risks" [8] - This differentiated approach suggests that global capital flows will become more complex, requiring investors to adopt multi-dimensional allocation strategies rather than relying on single asset trends [8]