金荣中国：美初请失业金人数高于预期，金价破位走高大幅收涨

Group 1: Gold Market - International gold prices saw a significant increase on Thursday, with an opening price of $4,193.70 per ounce, a high of $4,261.59, a low of $4,181.96, and a closing price of $4,255.96 [1] - Gold prices fluctuated throughout the day, reaching a peak of $4,286 before stabilizing around $4,279, marking three consecutive days of gains [8] - The daily chart indicates a bullish trend, with the moving averages showing a clear upward divergence, while the RSI indicates overbought conditions [8] Group 2: Employment Data - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose by 44,000 to 236,000 for the week ending December 6, marking the largest weekly increase since March 2020 [3] - The number of continuing claims decreased to 1.84 million, reflecting fluctuations typically seen around holiday periods [3] - Concerns about the labor market have negatively impacted consumer confidence, with a majority of respondents in a recent survey expecting an increase in unemployment over the next year [3] Group 3: Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in September, decreasing nearly 11% to $52.8 billion, the smallest level since mid-2020 [4] - Exports increased by 3%, reaching the second-highest level on record, driven primarily by non-monetary gold and pharmaceutical preparations [4] - The trade data is expected to help economists refine their estimates for third-quarter GDP [4] Group 4: Geopolitical Developments - The Trump administration imposed new sanctions on three nephews of Venezuelan President Maduro and six companies involved in transporting Venezuelan oil [5] - Following the seizure of a tanker carrying Venezuelan crude, the U.S. is preparing to intercept more vessels, increasing pressure on Maduro's regime [5] - Shipping sources indicate that the recent seizure has made operators reconsider their plans to navigate Venezuelan waters [5] Group 5: Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is 24.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 75.6% [6] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 40.4%, with a 52% chance of no change [6]