海通国际：首予蜜雪集团优于大市评级 目标价482港元

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International projects that Mixue Group's revenue will reach 33 billion, 38.4 billion, and 42.2 billion CNY in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 5.8 billion, 6.74 billion, and 7.5 billion CNY for the same years, reflecting the company's leading position in the global ready-to-drink beverage industry [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Mixue Group is the largest ready-to-drink beverage chain in China and a global leader, with 53,014 stores worldwide as of the first half of 2025, including 48,281 in China and 4,733 overseas [2] - According to data from Zhaoshang Consulting, Mixue Group ranks as the fourth largest ready-to-drink beverage company globally, holding a market share of 2.2% based on GMV in 2023 [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The ready-to-drink beverage segment is experiencing growth driven by economic expansion and rising disposable incomes, leading to a shift in consumer preferences from instant beverages [3] - There are significant growth opportunities for ready-to-drink tea in lower-tier cities, with predictions indicating that most new stores will open in third-tier cities and below, benefiting Mixue's market share [3] Group 3: Competitive Strategy - Mixue Group aims to enhance its competitive edge through a "supply chain + brand IP + store operations" model, striving for a "trinity total cost leadership" [4] - The company has established a digital end-to-end supply chain and a procurement network across six continents and 38 countries, along with five production bases [4] - Mixue's unique brand IP, "Xue Wang," attracts a large consumer base, distinguishing it within the industry [4] - The company has maintained a net increase of approximately 8,000 stores annually since 2020, establishing a vast network of over 48,000 stores in China by the first half of 2025 [4] Group 4: Future Growth Opportunities - Mixue Group plans to penetrate untapped domestic markets while capitalizing on the rapid development of lower-tier cities, leveraging its strong supply chain and store management capabilities [5] - In the overseas market, the company aims for steady growth in Southeast Asia while gradually expanding into Central Asia and the Americas [5] - The establishment of the "Lucky Coffee" brand and the recent acquisition of the "Fresh Beer Fu Lu Jia" brand are expected to enhance Mixue's positioning in the ready-to-drink beverage sector [5]