期货看“五”评 | 价格再创短期新高，如何看待锡价后续走势？

Supply Side - In October 2025, domestic tin ore imports increased to 11,600 tons (approximately 5,050 metal tons), a month-on-month rise of 33.49% but a year-on-year decline of 22.54% [1] - Cumulative imports from January to October reached 103,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 26.23% [1] - Tin ingot imports in October were 526 tons, down 58.55% month-on-month and 82.72% year-on-year, with cumulative imports for the year at 16,552 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.84% [1] - Imports from Congo (DRC) showed a recovery, while imports from Myanmar slightly declined but are expected to increase by over 2,000 tons in November due to mining permit approvals [1] Production Side - November's refined tin production is expected to remain stable, with Yunnan and Jiangxi's smelting enterprises maintaining high operating rates [2] - Yunnan's large smelting plants have resumed operations after seasonal maintenance, while Jiangxi faces a shortage of recycled raw materials, leading to lower production levels [2] - Overall, production recovery is constrained by raw material supply bottlenecks and weak demand, with no significant short-term increase in operating levels anticipated [2] Demand Side - The semiconductor industry continues to show resilience, with tin solder enterprises maintaining stable operating rates; November production increased by 0.95% month-on-month [4] - Southern China’s tin solder manufacturers are performing better due to their integration into emerging sectors like automotive and AI servers, which have robust order expectations [4] - In contrast, Eastern China’s tin solder enterprises are facing pressure due to slower order recovery in traditional consumer electronics, leading to weaker trading sentiment [4] Price Outlook - The tin market is currently in a tight balance, with improved supply from increased domestic imports in October, although concerns remain due to worsening conflicts in Congo affecting transport [10] - Traditional sectors like consumer electronics show signs of fatigue, while long-term demand from new sectors like electric vehicles and AI servers supports tin prices [10] - As Myanmar's tin ore supply gradually increases and demand weakens slightly, the supply-demand situation is expected to improve, potentially putting pressure on tin prices [10]