方正证券：聚焦煤炭红利与成长价值 成长型企业值得关注

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a tightening of supply, which is expected to reverse the current oversupply situation, with policies to limit production capacity continuing until 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The coal market has reached a cyclical bottom, with coal prices declining due to factors such as a warm winter, increased hydropower generation, and a relaxed safety supervision environment, leading to a situation where some coal mines are trading volume for price [1] - Following the release of a notice from the energy bureau regarding the verification of excessive production, the phenomenon of trading volume for price has begun to recede, and coal prices have started to rise, reaching a peak during the winter storage period [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - Supply remains tight, with ongoing safety inspections expected to limit coal production capacity in major producing regions such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia [2] - Indonesia, the largest coal exporter to China, is set to reduce its export targets starting in 2026, leading to increased competition for imported coal and limited overall supply growth [2] - Demand for coal is anticipated to gradually increase, driven by the manufacturing sector and data centers, despite a slowdown in the installation speed of renewable energy sources due to regulatory impacts [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Coal companies are expected to have more predictable profitability, with the market likely to recognize the high dividend and valuation enhancement logic associated with coal stocks [3] - The recent policy limiting production capacity is expected to maintain coal prices at a lower threshold, with current prices for thermal coal at 609 yuan/ton and coking coal at 1230 yuan/ton [3] - Low interest rates are expected to highlight the investment value of high-dividend coal stocks, attracting investments from low-risk preference funds and insurance products [3]