ASML Is the Silent Monopoly Behind the Entire Tech Industry, but Is It a Buy Right Now?

Core Viewpoint - ASML holds a near-monopoly in the lithography machine market essential for producing advanced semiconductor chips, making it a critical player in the tech supply chain [2][5][12] Company Overview - ASML is based in the Netherlands and specializes in producing extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines, which are crucial for etching patterns on semiconductor wafers [3][6] - The company has a market capitalization of $435 billion and its lithography machines can cost up to $400 million each [3][6] Market Position - ASML commands a 90% market share in the lithography industry and has a total monopoly on EUV systems, as its competitors Nikon and Canon only offer older lithography technologies [5][6] - The company is essential for all semiconductor manufacturers, including major clients like Intel, Samsung, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing [9][10] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, ASML reported net sales of €7.516 billion, a slight increase of 0.6% from €7.467 billion in Q3 2024 [8] - Gross margin improved to 51.6% from 50.8% year-over-year, while net income rose by 2.3% to €2.125 billion [8] - The company has a substantial backlog of orders, with net bookings reaching €5.399 billion, a 105% increase from the previous year [8] Industry Growth - The semiconductor industry is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it will reach a value of $1 trillion by 2030 [14] - There are currently 17 new semiconductor factories planned or under construction in the United States, all of which will require ASML's lithography machines [14] Investment Consideration - ASML is characterized as both overvalued and undervalued due to its unique market position, trading at a P/E ratio of 40 compared to Canon's 24 [9][12] - The company's role as a foundational supplier in the tech ecosystem suggests a strong growth trajectory moving forward [11][13]