特变电工(600089)：输变电装备与能源产业一体化领军企业 反内卷与出海赋能业绩高增

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading manufacturer in the power transmission and transformation sector and a high-quality producer of thermal coal in Xinjiang, with a diversified business model that includes coal production, thermal power generation, polysilicon production, and renewable energy project construction and operation [1][2]. Group 1: Business Overview - The company has approximately 12 billion tons of coal reserves, primarily non-caking coal, with a current approved production capacity of 74 million tons per year, which is expected to increase to 164 million tons per year after regulatory approvals [1]. - The company has established an integrated coal-electricity-silicon layout and is involved in coal transportation and electricity export from Xinjiang, as well as a coal-to-natural gas project with a capacity of 2 billion Nm³/year, which will connect to the West-to-East Gas Pipeline upon completion [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent "anti-involution" and capacity checks by the National Energy Administration have led to a rebound in coal prices from their lows, benefiting the company due to its low mining costs and proximity to high-energy-consuming enterprises [2]. - The company operates four thermal power plants, with the Jun Dong pit power station directly supplied by coal, significantly reducing generation costs and maintaining stable profitability [2]. Group 3: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 102.11 billion, 113.43 billion, and 128.48 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.3%, 11.1%, and 13.3% respectively [3]. - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period is projected to be 6.51 billion, 7.82 billion, and 9.22 billion yuan, with growth rates of 57.4%, 20.1%, and 18% respectively [3]. - The estimated earnings per share for 2025 to 2027 are 1.29, 1.55, and 1.83 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 18X, 15X, and 13X [3].