2026货币政策定调适度宽松，强调灵活高效降准降息

Group 1 - The monetary policy for 2026 is set to be "moderately loose," emphasizing "flexible and efficient use of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts" alongside "reasonable recovery of prices," shifting the focus from scale expansion to precise regulation and structural optimization [1][2] - The core objectives of the monetary policy now include "promoting reasonable price recovery" alongside "stabilizing economic growth," aiming to alleviate the current structural contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand" [2] - The policy will likely involve 1-2 RRR or interest rate cuts in 2026, with potential reductions of 10-50 basis points, and will emphasize coordination with a more proactive fiscal policy, including an expansion of special bonds and targeted funding towards technology innovation and green industries [3] Group 2 - The central bank's operational logic is shifting from traditional "interest rate cuts to promote inflation" to a focus on supply-side reforms and demand activation, aiming to reduce ineffective production capacity and enhance consumer spending through fiscal measures [4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to moderately rise to a target range of 0.4%-0.6%, while caution is advised regarding market distortions such as "price increases followed by subsidies" [5] Group 3 - External pressures are easing with the Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate cuts, which have reduced the US-China interest rate differential, providing a window for domestic interest rate reductions [6] - The strategy includes expanding exports of "new three items" (new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, etc.) to counteract risks from US tariffs and global supply chain issues, while also focusing on financial safety and optimizing local debt restructuring [7] Group 4 - Financing costs for enterprises are expected to decrease further, particularly benefiting technology and green sectors, while personal mortgage rates are likely to continue their downward trend, alleviating household leverage through policies supporting the acquisition of existing homes [8] - The loose liquidity is expected to support a structural market in A-shares, with a focus on technology (AI, robotics) and cyclical sectors (electricity, chemicals), while the value of national bonds and technology innovation bonds is becoming more prominent, attracting foreign investment in RMB assets [9]