美股明年能否接着“狂欢”？知名投行：若经济衰退来袭，或迅速暴跌20%！

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if the U.S. economy remains strong through 2026, the S&P 500 index is expected to rise by 9%, but investors should prepare for a potential 20% drop in case of a recession [1] - Stifel estimates a 25% probability of a recession occurring, despite it not being the base case for major Wall Street firms [1] - The labor market shows signs of instability, with rising unemployment and layoffs, which could lead to reduced consumer spending, negatively impacting an economy where 68% of GDP comes from consumer spending [1] Group 2 - The current stock valuations are at historical highs, which may pose challenges for investors, as the median market correction during recessions since World War II has been 20% [1] - Barry Bannister emphasizes that the price-to-earnings ratio becomes crucial when the S&P 500 is perceived as overvalued [2] - High-volatility stocks, such as Palantir and GameStop, have seen significant declines, indicating a potential early warning for a broader market downturn [2] Group 3 - The S&P 500's equity risk premium is nearing levels seen during the late 1990s and early 2000s dot-com bubble, suggesting heightened risk in current valuations [4] - Bannister's fundamental prediction is for the S&P 500 to achieve positive returns by 2026, but he advises establishing hedging positions with defensive stocks [6] - Recommended defensive ETFs include the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV), JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI), and iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF) [6]