Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrates strong confidence in its future development by repurchasing 8.14 million shares at an average price of 12.26 HKD per share, totaling 99.77 million HKD [1] Business Analysis - The Hilo product's capabilities are being validated, with British American Tobacco (BAT) increasing promotional efforts. In the Japanese market, BAT is actively promoting online and offline marketing activities, achieving a retention rate of approximately 50% among traditional cigarette and heated tobacco consumers, which supports the strong product performance of Hilo [1] - Hilo has significantly increased promotional offers in the Polish market, with Hilo devices bundled with two packs of cartridges priced at only 1 Zloty, and Hilo Plus devices with two packs at 79 Zloty. This strategy, supported by BAT's extensive sales network and marketing resources, is expected to drive continued sales growth of Hilo cartridges, contributing to core profit increments for the company [1] - The core vaping business is recovering and is expected to benefit from the expansion of the European and American markets. In 2024, U.S. regulatory authorities are intensifying efforts against illegal e-cigarettes, which is severely squeezing the market for illegal products. The FDA has cautiously supported the expansion of flavored tobacco, indicating a potential for continued market growth [2] - The European market is transitioning from disposable to refillable and open-system products, with BAT's U.S. market revenue expected to rebound in the second half of 2025. The global core market share is projected to increase by 0.1 percentage points by the end of 2024, with the U.S. market alone expected to grow by 0.7 percentage points [2] - BAT plans to accelerate the global promotion of Hilo by 2026 to capture market share across various segments of heated tobacco, amidst increasing competition from products like IQOS and heated tobacco from Japan. The long-term trend of increasing penetration of new tobacco products overseas is confirmed, with the company leveraging its technological strength and production capacity to maintain a prominent position in the industry [2] - The upward trend in the company's vaping and heated non-burn (HNB) businesses remains unchanged, with positive signals emerging across various operations, suggesting a need for active attention [2] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company forecasts EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 0.22, 0.37, and 0.59 CNY respectively, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of 53, 31, and 20 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]
思摩尔国际(06969.HK)：回购展现公司发展信心 当前位置已具布局价值