Ge Long Hui·2025-12-13 05:13Core Viewpoint - The global copper supply is under pressure due to the shutdown of large mines and anticipated U.S. tariffs, leading to a projected shortage in the coming years. Demand for copper is expected to rise significantly driven by AI, green energy, and defense sectors, with forecasts indicating that existing and planned mining capacities will only meet about 70% of global copper demand by 2035 [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Multiple large mines have ceased operations this year, impacting global supply and prompting market revisions of copper production forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [1]. - The market anticipates that the U.S. may impose at least a 25% tariff on refined copper by mid-2026, leading to a shift of copper inventories towards the U.S. and exacerbating shortages in other regions [1]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that current and planned mining capacities will only satisfy approximately 70% of global copper demand by 2035 [1]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - Copper is expected to be in high demand over the next decade due to its applications in AI, green energy transitions, and defense restructuring [1]. - The rapid development of AI, particularly in the U.S. with initiatives like the Genesis Mission, is significantly increasing copper demand for data center construction [1]. - China's commitment to specific greenhouse gas reduction targets is anticipated to support copper demand through upgrades in electrical infrastructure and power grids [1]. Group 3: Company Performance - Zijin Mining has set a five-year plan aiming for a copper production increase of over 49% by 2028, reaching 1.5 to 1.6 million tons, alongside a gold production increase of over 47% to 100-110 tons [1]. - The company reported a 10% year-on-year increase in revenue to 254.2 billion RMB and a 55% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders to 37.86 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations [2]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities grew by 44% to 52.11 billion RMB, indicating strong financial health [2]. Group 4: Diversification and Future Outlook - The company operates multiple mining projects across 17 countries, enhancing its risk diversification capabilities [2]. - Recent acquisitions, including the completion of the Akyem gold mine in Ghana and the Raygorodok gold mine in Kazakhstan, have bolstered its gold reserves and expanded its footprint in West Africa and Central Asia [2]. - If metal prices continue to rise, the company's earnings forecast for 2026 could be adjusted upwards, with projected earnings per share increasing by approximately 28% to 2.475 RMB [2].