Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to perform better than anticipated in 2025, with a projected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan, and policies will be implemented in 2026 to further stimulate economic growth [1][2]. Economic Performance - The overall economic indicators for this year are expected to meet targets, with a growth rate of around 5%, making China the largest engine of global economic growth [1]. - The International Monetary Fund and other institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth for the next two years [1]. Policy Implementation - In 2026, new incremental policies will be introduced based on changing circumstances, focusing on maintaining stable economic growth, employment, and price stability [2]. - A more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance [2]. Consumer Market - The "old for new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reaching nearly 60% by November [3]. - Plans to enhance consumer spending include implementing a rural income increase plan and improving basic pensions for urban and rural residents [3]. Investment Expansion - There is substantial investment potential in urbanization, technological innovation, and social welfare improvements, with plans to increase central budget investment and optimize local government bond usage [4]. - Measures will be taken to stimulate private investment and shift fixed asset investment towards stabilization [4]. Technological Innovation - The establishment of major international technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area has made significant progress [5]. - Support for basic research and the development of new technologies will be prioritized, alongside enhancing intellectual property protection [6]. Market Regulation - The government will continue to promote a unified national market and regulate local government economic activities, including a list of encouraged and prohibited investment practices [7]. - Efforts will be made to improve the business environment and deepen reforms to attract foreign investment [8]. Environmental Initiatives - The government aims to achieve carbon peak and promote green energy sources, with a focus on energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries [10]. - Plans include the establishment of zero-carbon parks and factories to foster sustainable development [10]. Employment and Risk Management - Employment policies will be prioritized to address the current supply-demand imbalance in the job market, with measures to stabilize the real estate market and manage local government debt risks [11]. - Strategies will be implemented to prevent the emergence of hidden debts and ensure financial stability [11].
明年将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策 中央财办权威发声
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-13 05:41