机构视角下的2026年房地产市场丨智库

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization in 2026, with core indicators indicating a narrowing decline, although overall market sentiment remains weak due to inventory pressure and market expectations [2][4][12]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Most research institutions predict that the real estate market will stabilize in 2026, with high-quality assets in core cities likely to recover first due to policy support and demand [2][4][12]. - The development logic of the industry is shifting from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization," focusing on affordable housing, urban renewal, and the construction of quality homes [2][4][12]. Group 2: Policy Environment - The policy environment remains supportive, with continued easing measures such as lower commercial and provident fund loan rates, and the gradual removal of restrictions in first-tier cities [4][12][15]. - The central government emphasizes the need for a new model in real estate, focusing on optimizing supply and promoting high-quality development [12][20]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The overall transaction volume and prices in the real estate market are stabilizing, with core city inventories manageable and some third- and fourth-tier cities showing signs of bottoming out [5][7][19]. - The willingness of residents to leverage their finances is low, influenced by housing prices and income expectations, while the supply side remains under pressure due to high inventory levels [4][5][7]. Group 4: Investment and Sales Projections - In a neutral scenario, total housing transaction volume is expected to decline by 5.0% in 2026, with new and second-hand homes projected to drop by 6.9% and 2.6% respectively [8][15]. - Real estate investment is anticipated to remain under pressure, with a projected decline of 14.9% in 2026, although the pace of decline may slow [8][15][19]. Group 5: Company Strategies - Real estate companies are expected to shift their focus towards product competitiveness, operational capacity enhancement, and risk management in response to the evolving market conditions [11][15][19]. - The emphasis on "good housing" standards will lead to a more diversified approach to housing choices, focusing on safety, comfort, and community service quality [11][12].