马云预言将要成真？若不出意外，2026年房地产将面临4大转折

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the real estate market in China and identifies four major turning points expected by 2026, despite false claims attributed to Jack Ma regarding predictions for the real estate sector [3][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - The real estate market in China has been declining since 2022, with significant price drops in second and third-tier cities, while first-tier cities have shown relative price stability [5]. - By 2026, it is anticipated that first-tier cities will experience a price correction, with previously declining second and third-tier cities seeing a slowdown in price drops [5]. - The price-to-income ratio in cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen has reached 40, indicating a significant housing bubble that necessitates a price correction [5]. Group 2: Shifts in Buyer Behavior - The demand for housing is shifting from speculative investment to genuine housing needs, as the investment value of real estate diminishes due to continuous price declines [7]. - The proportion of real estate in household assets is currently at 77%, but this is expected to decrease as residents diversify their investments into stocks, bonds, and other financial assets [11]. Group 3: Development Focus - The real estate sector is transitioning from a "rough development phase" to a focus on building quality homes, driven by policy changes encouraging developers to improve construction standards [9]. - The emphasis will shift towards better design, quality, and amenities in residential properties as the market matures [9]. Group 4: Asset Diversification - Over the past two decades, real estate has been the primary asset class for Chinese households, but the trend is shifting towards a more diversified asset allocation as the housing market loses its appeal [11]. - This diversification is expected to continue into 2026, reflecting a broader trend in wealth management among Chinese residents [11].