邓正红能源软实力：担忧供应地缘性中断 供应过剩情绪加剧 国际油价小幅走低

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly concerned about an oversupply of oil, despite worries over disruptions in Venezuelan oil supply, leading to a bearish sentiment in oil prices [1][4] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On December 12, international oil prices slightly declined, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $57.44 per barrel, down 0.28%, and Brent crude at $61.12 per barrel, down 0.26% [1] - The consensus that supply will exceed demand next year is pushing oil prices towards the lower end of the range since mid-October [1] - Short positions on Brent crude have risen to a seven-week high, indicating market bets on further price declines [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The interplay between geopolitical tensions, such as the U.S.-Venezuela relationship and the drone attacks in Ukraine, provides some support for oil prices, but overall market sentiment reflects an oversupply [1][3] - The U.S. stock market's decline is negatively impacting oil prices through the dollar index, which typically has an inverse relationship with oil prices [3] - The market's consensus on a supply surplus by 2026 reflects a reconfiguration of market rules, where expectations are influencing price more than actual supply changes [3][4] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Short-term volatility is expected due to the ongoing battle between geopolitical risks and supply fundamentals, with any price rebounds likely to be temporary [4] - In the medium to long term, the global oil market is entering a period of inventory accumulation, with Brent crude's average price projected to be between $65 and $75 per barrel for the year [4] - Investors are advised to monitor both rule-based indicators (like the dollar index and market sentiment) and material indicators (such as global inventory and supply-demand balance) for better investment strategies [4]