Core Viewpoint - The global economic and financial outlook for 2026 is characterized by "fragile growth," as articulated by Zhu Min, former Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and former Vice President of the International Monetary Fund [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth - Global economic growth continues to slow down, indicating a persistent trend of fragility in the economic landscape [1]. - The changing dynamics of global trade are contributing to this fragile growth environment [1]. Group 2: Fiscal and Financial Risks - There is an increasing risk of unsustainable government finances, which is a fundamental source of financial risk [1]. - The U.S. government debt has surpassed 100% of its GDP, with the growth rate of debt outpacing GDP growth, highlighting significant fiscal pressure [1]. - Zhu Min emphasizes that fiscal risks lead to rising interest costs, which further exacerbate financial instability [1]. Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - U.S. inflation has not returned to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, posing a significant risk for future interest rate cuts by the Fed [3]. - This inflation uncertainty represents another major challenge for global economic and financial development in 2026 [3].
IMF原副总裁朱民：美国处于财政不可持续的危机之中
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-13 08:27