中国发首批稀土通用出口许可，美国福特上榜，稀土战真要结束了？

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of the first batch of rare earth export licenses by China's Ministry of Commerce marks a strategic shift in the management of rare earth resources, indicating a move from strict control to a more nuanced approach that allows for targeted exports while maintaining overall leverage in the global market [3][25][41]. Group 1: Export Licenses and Strategic Implications - The first batch of rare earth export licenses includes major companies such as Jinli Permanent Magnet, Ningbo Yunsheng, and Zhongke Sanhuan, with Ford Motor Company listed as a beneficiary [3][5]. - This move raises questions about whether China is easing its grip on a critical resource or if it is part of a deeper strategic maneuver [5][7]. - The issuance of these licenses is not merely a relaxation of restrictions but represents a tactical shift from a blunt "cut-off" strategy to a more sophisticated "precision control" approach [7][25]. Group 2: Importance of Rare Earth Elements - Rare earth elements, particularly neodymium, praseodymium, terbium, and dysprosium, are essential for modern high-end manufacturing, including smartphones, computers, and advanced military equipment [9][11]. - China controls 92% of the global production capacity for rare earth processing, with an even higher percentage for strategic heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium [13][15]. - The potential impact of export restrictions is significant, as evidenced by a projected drop in U.S. rare earth imports to below 1,750 tons after April 2025 due to supply chain disruptions [15]. Group 3: Strategic Management of Exports - The strategy of issuing export licenses is designed to create a "trusted customer system," where compliance and reliability are key factors for companies seeking access to rare earths [31][39]. - This system allows for greater efficiency in managing exports while ensuring that sensitive military applications are restricted from accessing these resources [33][41]. - The dynamic nature of the export licenses serves as a reminder to global buyers that supply chain stability is contingent upon adherence to Chinese regulations [39]. Group 4: Long-term Market Dynamics - The approach of controlled release of rare earth exports aims to prevent Western companies from developing alternative supply chains, which could diminish China's leverage in the market [19][29]. - By maintaining a balance between supply and demand, China can ensure that its rare earth resources remain a critical asset in global negotiations and market dynamics [41]. - The strategic use of export licenses reflects a broader understanding of the geopolitical landscape, where control over resources translates into significant bargaining power [41].