突发！美元，利空突袭！

Core Viewpoint - Major Wall Street banks are bearish on the US dollar, predicting a decline as the Federal Reserve continues its easing cycle, with Morgan Stanley forecasting a 5% drop in the first half of next year [1][2]. Group 1: Predictions on Dollar Decline - Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs anticipate that the dollar will weaken again by 2026 due to the Fed's continued easing while other central banks maintain or raise rates [1]. - The Bloomberg dollar index is projected to decline by approximately 3% by the end of 2026 [1]. - The dollar has already experienced a significant drop of nearly 8% this year, marking the largest annual decline since 2017 [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - A weaker dollar is expected to have a chain reaction on the US economy, increasing import costs, enhancing the value of overseas profits for companies, and potentially boosting exports [3]. - The shift of investor funds to emerging markets for higher yields could extend the rally in these markets, with significant returns recorded in carry trades since 2009 [3]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions - Some analysts, such as those from Citigroup and Standard Chartered, argue that the US economy, driven by AI growth, remains strong and could attract international capital, supporting the dollar [5]. - The Federal Reserve has raised its growth forecast for 2026, indicating potential for stronger-than-expected growth, despite announcing a 25 basis point rate cut [5].