Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-13 10:45Core Viewpoint - The high-end liquor industry, particularly Moutai and Wuliangye, is facing significant challenges, not primarily due to younger consumers' preferences but because the era of economic benefits is fading [1][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Wuliangye is reportedly reducing the price for distributors from over 1,000 to 900 yuan per bottle through channel subsidies rather than direct price cuts, which helps maintain brand perception while stimulating sales [3][5]. - Moutai's third-quarter revenue was 39 billion yuan, with a minimal growth of 0.56%, and net profit increased by only 0.48%, a stark contrast to previous quarters where growth was over 10% [7][9]. - Wuliangye's third-quarter revenue plummeted by 52% to 8.17 billion yuan, and net profit fell by 65%, indicating a severe downturn in the high-end liquor market [9]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Economic Environment - The narrative blaming younger consumers for the decline in high-end liquor sales is misleading; historically, the primary consumers were not young people but those benefiting from economic growth [11][13]. - The economic environment has changed, with key industries like real estate cooling down, leading to reduced disposable income and less frequent high-end dining experiences [15][17]. - The frequency and scale of business banquets have decreased, resulting in a shift towards more pragmatic and rational consumption patterns [17]. Group 3: Industry Response and Future Outlook - Wuliangye's subsidy strategy is a calculated move to motivate distributors while preserving brand value amidst market pressures [19][20]. - The high-end liquor sector is experiencing inventory buildup and price competition, with many brands now adopting lower-priced strategies, leading to an "involution" in the market [22]. - The recovery of the high-end liquor market is closely tied to the overall economic environment, with hopes for a return to growth dependent on improved economic conditions and consumer spending [24][26].