发达经济体可能进入加息通道，只有美国是个例外

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the target range for the federal funds rate from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut this year, totaling a reduction of 175 basis points since September of the previous year [2] - The Fed's dot plot indicates an expectation of one more 25 basis point rate cut next year, suggesting a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts compared to this year [2] - There is significant dissent among Fed officials regarding the rate cut, with concerns about stagnant inflation and a cooling job market [2] Group 2 - The global interest rate environment is fundamentally changing, with many economies potentially shifting from a rate-cutting phase to a rate-hiking phase, as evidenced by Australia's recent decision to maintain its cash rate at 3.60% due to resilient domestic demand [3] - Australia's CPI for October rose to 3.8%, exceeding previous values and market expectations, driven by strong consumer spending and government investment [3][4] - Canada is following a similar trend, with its central bank maintaining a benchmark rate of 2.25% while strong employment and GDP data suggest a potential shift towards rate hikes [4] Group 3 - Japan is currently the only developed economy in a rate-hiking phase, having announced a rate increase from 0.5% to 0.75% to address domestic inflation pressures [5] - Japan's rate hike could significantly impact global liquidity, as it is a major provider of funds in the global market [5] Group 4 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is also expected to shift its monetary policy, with President Lagarde indicating an upward revision of economic growth forecasts for the Eurozone [6] - The Eurozone's economy grew by 0.2% in the third quarter, driven by increased investment in digital services, leading to a slight increase in market expectations for ECB rate hikes [7] - Long-term bond yields in Europe have surged, with significant increases in yields for UK, German, and French bonds, reflecting concerns over fiscal conditions and rising military expenditures due to ongoing geopolitical tensions [7]