押注AI冲击，Apollo做空多家软件公司债务

Core Insights - Apollo Global Management is significantly reducing its exposure to the software industry due to concerns over AI disrupting business models [1][4] - The firm has engaged in short-selling strategies targeting several software companies owned by private equity firms [2][4] - Apollo aims to lower its credit fund's software exposure to below 10% of net assets, down from approximately 20% [3][4] Group 1: Short-Selling Strategy - Apollo's short-selling targets include software companies like Internet Brands, SonicWall, and Perforce, which are backed by large private equity firms [2] - Despite a sell-off in credit bonds earlier this year, these bonds are still trading above 80% of face value, indicating no immediate default fears [2] - The short positions represent less than 1% of Apollo's $700 billion credit asset portfolio and are partly used as market hedging [2] Group 2: Risk Exposure Reduction - Apollo's CEO, Marc Rowan, has communicated to investors that the firm's risk exposure to software companies has been cut nearly in half as they approach 2025 [2][3] - The company has conducted a comprehensive review of software firms to assess potential risks posed by AI [3] Group 3: Concerns Over AI Disruption - Apollo believes that AI's capabilities in automating coding, customer service, and routine financial tasks threaten the survival of many software companies [4] - The firm acknowledges that while AI may present opportunities for some software companies, it has chosen to avoid directional bets in the industry [4] - Blackstone's president has also warned about underestimating the risks of technological disruption, particularly in rule-based businesses [4] Group 4: Valuation Concerns - Historical valuation bubbles in the software sector, exacerbated by a surge in leveraged buyouts (LBOs) from 2020 to 2021, have made high-priced assets particularly vulnerable [5] - With many private credit funds still holding 25% to 33% of their assets in software companies, the potential for a market shake-up due to AI could have significant ripple effects [5] Group 5: Market Reassessment - Apollo's actions may signal the beginning of a broader reassessment of credit markets in response to technological changes [6]