日本央行要动手了？加息信号背后的通胀、日元与国运博弈

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates for the first time since 1995, with a market betting on a 25 basis point increase at the upcoming policy meeting on December 19 [1][11] - Japan's core CPI reached 2.5%, aligning with the central bank's inflation target, providing a rationale for potential rate hikes [3][17] - The depreciation of the yen has led to increased import costs, contributing to domestic inflation and public dissatisfaction [5][16] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's monetary policy has been characterized by a gradual approach, contrasting with the aggressive rate hikes seen in the U.S. Federal Reserve [8][10] - Market expectations for a rate hike have surged to 88%, the highest since 1995, but even with a potential increase, Japan's rates would remain the lowest among developed countries [11][13] - The current inflation is largely driven by rising energy and raw material prices, with concerns that a sustainable wage-price spiral has not yet formed [17][19] Group 3 - Japan's government debt exceeds 260% of GDP, the highest among developed nations, complicating the fiscal landscape for potential rate hikes [20] - The Bank of Japan holds over 50% of government bonds, and any significant rise in long-term yields could adversely affect its balance sheet and the financial market [22] - Global economic conditions, including potential interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, could impact Japan's monetary policy decisions and the yen's value [25][27] Group 4 - The Bank of Japan is likely to enter a prolonged period of low interest rates and gradual rate increases, as the legacy of three decades of monetary easing presents significant challenges [29]