2025年城轨建设投资额预计达4500亿元 连续五年下滑

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" for urban rail transit in China has seen a total construction investment of 21,267.2 billion yuan in the first four years, with an expected investment of around 4,500 billion yuan by 2025, leading to a total investment exceeding 25,000 billion yuan during the period, which is a 2.1% decrease compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The annual construction investment in urban rail has been declining since peaking in 2020, with projected investments of 6,286 billion yuan, 5,859.8 billion yuan, 5,444 billion yuan, 5,214 billion yuan, and 4,749.41 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024 [1] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to see a further 15% reduction in construction investment compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Investment and Market Trends - Following the increase in approval thresholds for urban rail projects since 2018, the focus will shift to "controlling increments and optimizing existing resources," leading to growth in the operation and maintenance market while intensifying competition among design and construction firms [2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is projected to add approximately 4,000 kilometers of new operational lines, bringing the total operational length to nearly 17,000 kilometers by the end of the period [2] - The total passenger volume for urban rail in the first four years of the "14th Five-Year Plan" reached 1,047.2 billion trips, with an expected total of about 340 billion trips by 2025, resulting in an average annual passenger volume of approximately 277 billion trips, a 43% increase compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2]