国金证券：政策+技术+业绩三重拐点 商业航天迎来奇点时刻

Core Viewpoint - The commercial aerospace industry is at a pivotal moment, with SpaceX leading as a global benchmark and China's aerospace sector poised for significant growth driven by strategic government initiatives and technological advancements [1][8]. Group 1: Overseas Mapping - SpaceX is not a traditional aerospace manufacturer but a monopolist in space logistics and infrastructure, creating a self-reinforcing commercial loop through its low-cost Falcon 9 launch system and the Starlink satellite network [1][2]. - SpaceX's competitive advantage stems from three dimensions: cost barriers through reusable rockets, manufacturing barriers with over 80% self-research and production, and customer barriers due to deep strategic ties with the U.S. government [2][3]. Group 2: Starlink as a Growth Engine - Starlink serves as SpaceX's cash cow and core growth engine, benefiting from a strong flywheel effect that enhances user acquisition and revenue generation [4]. - The business model of Starlink is evolving through three phases: B2C for rural broadband, B2B for high-value mobile scenarios, and B2B2C for direct mobile connectivity, significantly expanding its market potential [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Logic for A-shares - The investment logic for A-shares in commercial aerospace is to embrace the infrastructure boom of the Qianfan constellation and focus on high-barrier component suppliers, as China is entering a phase similar to SpaceX's network-building period from 2018 to 2020 [7]. Group 4: Domestic Catalysts - The domestic aerospace sector is experiencing a surge in demand, with a projected annual launch requirement exceeding 1,000 satellites, while current capabilities can only meet a fraction of this need [8]. - The development of reusable rockets is critical for reducing costs, with several new models set to launch soon, marking a significant step towards achieving this technology [8][9]. - Government policies are increasingly supportive of the aerospace sector, with clear strategic directions outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan and various action plans aimed at promoting high-quality development in commercial aerospace [9]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The current investment strategy focuses on the core components of rockets and satellites, particularly in areas like 3D printing and specialized materials, which are expected to yield the highest performance elasticity [10]. - The mid-term strategy will shift towards ground infrastructure, user terminals, and operational aspects as the industry matures [10].