14亿人口消费者都带不动，2025年生意如何越来越难做？4个原因很现实

Core Insights - The business environment in China is becoming increasingly challenging, with a significant decline in profitability and consumer spending expected in 2025 compared to previous years [1][9]. Group 1: Economic Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China for 2024 are projected to be 48.79 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of only 3.5%, which is historically low [1]. - Consumer spending growth is expected to slow to 2.3% in 2025, indicating a shift towards more cautious and purpose-driven consumption [7]. Group 2: Cost Pressures - Industry foundational costs are on the rise, with increasing prices for raw materials, logistics, and administrative expenses, leading to a compression of profit margins for businesses [3][9]. - Labor costs are expected to increase by over 5% in 2025 due to a diminishing labor pool and competitive market conditions, making it harder for businesses to maintain profitability [4][5]. - Rental costs remain high, particularly in first and second-tier cities, with some commercial properties commanding monthly rents in the tens of thousands, further straining business operations [4][5]. Group 3: Consumer Financial Constraints - Mortgage debt is significantly impacting consumer spending power, as many households are locked into long-term repayment plans, limiting their disposable income for other expenditures [5][9]. - Even with a decrease in mortgage interest rates, the overall financial burden remains substantial, constraining consumer spending and affecting sectors reliant on discretionary purchases [6][9]. Group 4: Banking and Financial Environment - The decline in bank interest rates, while seemingly beneficial, reflects underlying economic weaknesses and has led to reduced profitability for banks, which may tighten lending standards [8][9]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks fell to a historic low of 1.43% in early 2025, indicating pressure on banks to maintain profitability, which could adversely affect small businesses seeking loans [8].