非标融资和政府债托底社融，实体信贷收缩，对消费与投资拖累大！

Group 1 - In November 2025, new social financing increased by 6.9% year-on-year, primarily supported by non-standard financing and government bonds, while core credit demand from the real economy remained weak [2][4][8] - Non-standard financing became the main contributor, with trust loans and other non-standard assets increasing significantly, indicating a reliance on flexible funding channels to support infrastructure and local projects [4][6] - Government bonds played a leading role, with net issuance of 1.2 trillion yuan in November, but the growth rate declined due to a high base effect, highlighting the increasing share of government-related financing in total social financing [6][7] Group 2 - Resident loans continued to contract, reflecting weak real estate cycles and insufficient consumer spending, with a significant year-on-year decrease in new resident loans [9][11] - The real estate market showed signs of weakness, with high household savings rates and declining property prices, leading to a lack of purchasing intent among residents [12][13] - Consumer confidence dropped, exacerbated by external pressures such as high global inflation and domestic supply excess, indicating a need for policy shifts to stimulate consumption [13][14] Group 3 - Corporate funding needs increased year-on-year, but the debt structure revealed a lack of confidence in future investments, with a notable preference for short-term financing over long-term expansion [14][17] - New short-term loans surged, while medium- to long-term loans saw a decline, reflecting a cautious approach among businesses amid low demand and economic uncertainty [17][19] - Fixed asset investment showed a rare decline, indicating insufficient capital formation and the need for improved business environments and tax incentives to stimulate long-term demand [19][20] Group 4 - Fiscal policy is expected to shift focus from replacing local hidden debts to promoting fixed asset investment in 2026, aiming to support economic growth [20][22] - The central economic work conference emphasized maintaining active fiscal policies, with potential measures to boost investment in real estate and infrastructure [22][23] - However, challenges remain regarding investment efficiency amid existing overcapacity, and the potential for government debt to exceed credit could further dampen household and corporate demand [22][23]